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August 13th: Bitcoin Technical Update

Bitcoin Insurance

A more detailed report on bitcoin will follow in the coming weeks. In summary, we see BTC trading to $60,000 plus in the coming years. The fundamental thesis supports the price action on this move, and we will publish this for you in mid-September. The question is – will we have a major retrace before this move, or will we breakout from here, leaving these levels behind? 

BTC’s price has been relatively stable over the last couple weeks, trading within a very tight range.  If you look at the blue lines in the chart, you’ll notice that BTC is coming to the point of a trading pattern known as a wedge. A wedge is a defined trading range that tightens to a point, where price builds up momentum before it makes a decision to break out or break down.

Scenarios:

  • My primary count has BTC breaking down to the $9,600 support region and then retracing to $8,000-$7,000, which coincides with the .382% retrace.
  • My secondary count is that BTC breaks out from here, reaching new highs above $13,875.
  • $4800 is the must-hold point for this bull market

Taking out insurance and allocating 20% of your BTC position today at current prices is something to consider, and planning to add to the position depending on if the price breaks up or breaks down.  You can add the remaining 80% in tranches depending on if we break out or break down.

I’m personally holding BTC with a 40% stop, and viewing $4800 as the must hold point for this bull market. This would be a welcomed and final pullback, although appears to be more elusive.   as the price has remained steady for an extended period. Please only allocate a small portion of your portfolio to BTC.  This is highly speculative and very volatile. 

Published inStock Updates (Blogs)Technical Analysis

2 Comments

  1. Nathan Bartley Nathan Bartley

    Based on the security issues around holding bitcoin, (Mt. Gox, Quadriga ect…) do you have any recommendations on where to purchase and hold bitcoin?

    • Hi Nathan,

      I would look into offline/cold storage options. Ledger is a favorite among serious crypto investors. If you’re needing to trade, Coinbase is a decent option or blockchain.info. I use Coinbase and Ledger.

      We broke $10,600 and it was either going up or down from there so maybe wait to see what the price action does. There is still a decent probability we see a $4000-$7800 range.

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